and will likely be even less effective in the modern era.” The societal costs involved in interrupting all air or train travel would be extreme. The World Health Organization Writing Group concluded that “screening and quarantining entering travelers at international borders did not substantially delay virus introduction in past pandemics. Travel restrictions, such as closing airports and screening travelers at borders, have historically been ineffective.would also be particularly hard on and dangerous to people living in close quarters, where the risk of infection would be heightened.It is difficult to identify circumstances in the past half-century when large-scale quarantine has been effectively used in the control of any disease… the negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.
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You can read the full version at the link, but here’s the key summary: Nuzzo, and physician Tara O’Toole he produced a paper: Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza. Together with co-authors Thomas V.Inglesby, epidemiologist Jennifer B. In short, he was one of the world’s leading experts in this area. None more so than Donald Henderson, a US epidemiologist who had capped his career by training for two years at the Epidemic Intelligence Service of the Communicable Disease Center, before moving to Geneva to head the WHO’s smallpox division. This was quickly followed by a 2007 CDC paper, Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States.Īctual epidemiologists were appalled. However, if neighboring communities do not also use these interventions, infected neighbors will continue to introduce influenza and prolong the local epidemic, albeit at a depressed level more easily accommodated by healthcare systems. If compliance with the strategy is high over this period, an epidemic within a community can be averted. They likely must be imposed for the duration of the local epidemic and possibly until a strain-specific vaccine is developed and distributed. Implementation of social distancing strategies is challenging. One of the outcomes of this thinking was actually a pre-modern idea – the lockdown of the entire society.
Even then they were a little behind, in that Tom Clancy had already played out that scenario in his 1996 book Executive Orders: it should be noted that the immediate previous book, Debt of Honor, had ended with a suicidal pilot crashing his 747 into Congress while it was in session. In the months after the attack, various brains tried to imagine what form future terrorist attacks might take, and one of the obvious ones was biowarfare the introduction of a lethal disease like Ebola. More than three decades later, that phrase would be invoked by US intelligence agency people to describe the basic problem that led to the 9/11 attacks, and they determined not to be caught out on that front again. But it was an Apollo astronaut, Frank Borman (later the commander of the first voyage to the Moon on Apollo 8) who summed up the problem concisely: “We had a failure of imagination”. At least at the lower levels of Apollo Programme Manager and his counterpart at North American aviation, Congress did taste a little blood, as the men concerned were moved to other projects.
The former wanted to fix the problems and get to the Moon, while the latter, paying the bills, wanted scalps.
After the Apollo 1 fire in January 1967, a rather large investigation to find out what had gone wrong was carried out inside NASA, but also via Congress.